Tokyo and Seoul keep one eye on North Korea

[Jay!]

FT.com (Financial Times): Tokyo and Seoul keep one eye on North Korea
By Andrew Ward in Seoul and David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: March 20 2003 19:55 | Last Updated: March 20 2003 19:55

Japan and South Korea voiced support on Thursday for Washington's efforts to remove Saddam Hussein by force but the two countries appeared more concerned about North Korea than war in Iraq.

Seoul warned its communist neighbour not to use the conflict in Iraq as an opportunity to accelerate its nuclear weapons programme and Tokyo said it was on the alert for possible provocations by Pyongyang.

"North Korea should not take any further steps that undermine stability on the Korean peninsula," said South Korea's Unification Ministry.

Many analysts have said Pyongyang could start to produce weapons-grade plutonium or test-fire a ballistic missile in the next few weeks, calculating that the US would be unable to respond militarily while so many of its forces are tied up in the Gulf.

The US has sent an aircraft carrier and stealth fighters to South Korea and positioned several B-52 bombers on the nearby island of Guam to deter North Korea, but few people believe the claim by Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, that Washington would be prepared to fight two wars at the same time.

Kim Sang-woo, a former member of South Korea's parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said: "North Korea may rush to declare itself a nuclear power while the US is busy in Iraq, because it knows that with nuclear weapons it is less likely to be the next US target."

North Korea was named last year alongside Iraq and Iran in President George W. Bush's "axis of evil", fuelling fears in Pyongyang that it could be a future victim of pre-emptive US attack.

There was no immediate reaction from North Korea to Thursday's events but Mr Kim said the targeting of Mr Hussein in the first phase of the war sent a chilling message to Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader.

Analysts said Tokyo's and Seoul's support for the US - in defiance of public anti-war sentiment in both countries - reflected their need to stay on good terms with Washington rather than enthusiasm for regime change in Baghdad.

Japan and South Korea rely on the US to defend them against North Korea and both countries want influence over US policy towards Pyongyang.

"I think Seoul has done a deal with Washington," said Mr Kim. "We have promised to support war in Iraq on the condition that [Mr] Bush pursues a diplomatic solution in North Korea."

Backing by Tokyo and Seoul for war in Iraq is likely to worry Pyongyang, which has been attempting to drive a wedge between the US and its Asian allies.

"The agreement between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington over Iraq could lead to closer co-operation between the three in forging a joint policy towards North Korea," said Lee Dong-bok, an analyst with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Both Roh Moo-hyun, South Korean president, and Junichiro Koizumi, Japanese prime minister, used the term "national interest" to justify their support for pre-emptive US action against Iraq. But critics in Tokyo and Seoul are questioning the wisdom of backing a policy that would have disastrous consequences for the region if applied to North Korea.

An editorial in Thursday's Asahi Shimbun, an influential Japanese newspaper, said swift victory in Iraq could encourage the US to blunder dangerously into North Korea. "Should tensions heighten further with North Korea, something will have to be done through the Security Council," it said.

"But what is Japan going to do if the US ignores the Council again and rushes into [another] war?"

A two theater war = World War III for sure.

[Cbass]

Well, we can all agree that if North Korea has nuclear weapons, it is far less likely they would be invaded by the US.

[1985_BMW318i]

Japan is much stronger then most other countries realize. I've been based there. I respect and admire the Japanese people, Not only do they build some damned fine autos(which I prefer German autos) but they also are the only country that the US has licensed to build General Dynamics F-16's. They can protect themselves very well and will also protect their allies like the US will