Bock Yates on Hybrids

[TexasF355F1]

http://www.caranddriver.com/article....&page_number=1

Brock Yates

Hybrid hype, and miscellaneous ramblings.
BY BROCK YATES
June 2005
While the greenies and their flunkies in the so-called major media palpitate over the future of the hybrid, the flinty-eyed analysts at California's J.D. Power and Associates have survey data that indicate a less than twinkling future for this complex and expensive alternative to the hated internal-combustion engine of the elites. The J.D. Power folks, who are usually right on the money in their forecasting, predict that 2006 sales among the proposed 17 hybrid models (cars and light trucks) are expected to total about 260,000 units, or roughly 1.5 percent of the domestic market. J.D. Power claims hybrids will grow to 38 models, both cars and trucks, by 2011 and will peak at a three-percent share. Toyota will hold its lead, with Honda in the hunt and Chevrolet, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler playing relatively minor roles.

Three percent of the total market? Wait a minute! The pundits tell us that hybrids are the future—at least until the fuel cell arrives (at about the same time they discover perpetual motion and cure the common cold).



But one of the most respected, high-powered engineering executives in the industry, speaking off the record, recently told me, "J.D. Power is probably right, although maybe a bit optimistic. Everybody in the hybrid market is losing money. The current units, which are very complex, cost about $5000 more than a normal IC engine. The buyer is paying about a $3000 premium, which means the manufacturer is upside down for about $2000. That, plus the fact that fuel-economy gains are less than people think, what with winter when the heater and defroster are used and summer when the A/C is in operation. Yes, there is a small improvement in city mpg, but it's negligible on the open road. Couple that with the still-undetermined cost of maintenance of the Rube Goldberg power units and the unknown life cycle of the battery packs, and the economic advantages become hazy at best.


"A great deal depends on the future price of gasoline or if the government radically increases fuel-mileage standards. But as it stands now, the average customer is going to stay with a conventional automobile because the mpg cost factor makes obvious economic sense.

"The price of fuel and lower-cost technology will govern the market, and the role hybrids will play remains doubtful at best."

Of course, the know-it-alls in the big media have instant solutions. Example: Newsweek columnist Fareed Zakaria recently touted some supremely woozy technology using "plug in" hybrids with flexible fuel (15-percent petroleum, 85-percent methanol or ethanol) and—voilà! 500 mpg! Zakaria ignores the wallet-busting cost of producing, refining, and distributing methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and other alternative fuels—a concept that has long since been hooted down by people who understand the harsh realities of energy production. If only these gasbags in the elitist press would do their homework.

[MagicRat]

Originally Posted by TexasF355F1

http://www.caranddriver.com/article....&page_number=1
If only these gasbags in the elitist press would do their homework.

Brock Yates is the biggest gas bag of them all.
He turned a simple concept, that is, the cost of buying the hybrid is not offset by the fuel savings for most people......and he spins it into an entire monthly column........for which C&D pays him handsomely.

Frankly, this concept also applies to most of the diesel engines in cars (not so much in trucks, though)

What that gasbag forgets is most people are willing to pay extra for more stuff in a car. Otherwise, we would all would still be driving Yugos.

Some people want more luxury, and pay more for a Caddy.

Some people want performance and status and buy a BMW for more money.

Some people WANT extra fuel mileage and pay for it. It does not matter to them if it does not make economic sense.

[lazysmurff]

ugh.

brock yates is an idiot. enough said. but since im feeling argumenative

DVD players didnt make economic sense when they first came out. niether did cd players, cell phones, VCR's, TV's, radios, computers, fridges, microwaves, or (and this is the shocker) the original internal combustion engine. why not just get a horse and carriage?

technology gets cheaper and more easily accesable as time goes on (and oil will only get more pricey) and so hybrids will become more prevelant (or some other alternative...like bicycles)

[2strokebloke]

I'd rather hear him talk about how airbags kill more people than they save.

I also think Yates should do his homework about alternative fuels, considering that alcohol fuels like ethanol can be cheaper to produce than gasoline (but he is right about hydrogen).

[Flatrater]

I would like to add that anyone who quotes JD Powers is a moron. JD Powers wants to bankrupt the auto industry he has a hatred towards the car dealers. Do some research on JD Powers.

As for the small gain stated in mpg see and read some of the links in that site.http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hybrid_sbs.shtml

E-85 fuel engines have been in use for several years now. The GM 5.3L engine is a flex fuel designed engine.

Bio-diesel is being produced for trucks now.


A little info for the curious the Ford Escape Hybrid uses the Atkinson cycle engine instead of the internal combustion engine we see today based on the Otto-cycle. The Atkinson cycle engine has no need for a camshaft or connecting rods to move the piston up and down in the cylinder. Also all 4 strokes are accomplished in one complete turn of the crankshaft.

Here are some links dealing with the Atkinson cycle engine
http://home.earthlink.net/~graham1/M...Combustion.htm
http://www.keveney.com/Atkinson.html

[tenguzero]

Originally Posted by Flatrater

I would like to add that anyone who quotes JD Powers is a moron. JD Powers wants to bankrupt the auto industry he has a hatred towards the car dealers. Do some research on JD Powers.

As for the small gain stated in mpg see and read some of the links in that site.http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hybrid_sbs.shtml

E-85 fuel engines have been in use for several years now. The GM 5.3L engine is a flex fuel designed engine.

Bio-diesel is being produced for trucks now.


A little info for the curious the Ford Escape Hybrid uses the Atkinson cycle engine instead of the internal combustion engine we see today based on the Otto-cycle. The Atkinson cycle engine has no need for a camshaft or connecting rods to move the piston up and down in the cylinder. Also all 4 strokes are accomplished in one complete turn of the crankshaft.

Here are some links dealing with the Atkinson cycle engine
http://home.earthlink.net/~graham1/M...Combustion.htm
http://www.keveney.com/Atkinson.html

What do certified mechanics think of the hybrid technology? Do you find yourself preparing to take classes or something to educate yourself on the workings of a hybrid vehicle? Obviously hybrid vehicles will undoubtedly grow in popularity (as they should) because they seem to be the most viable way to bridge the gap that exists between phasing out oil-based fuel, and phasing in some sort of completely different renewable source.

I assume anyone buying hybrids right now is taking them to the dealership for service, but eventually I assume the private mechanics and automotive stores of the country will have to catch up as well. Unless they already have?

[Flatrater]

Originally Posted by tenguzero

What do certified mechanics think of the hybrid technology? Do you find yourself preparing to take classes or something to educate yourself on the workings of a hybrid vehicle? Obviously hybrid vehicles will undoubtedly grow in popularity (as they should) because they seem to be the most viable way to bridge the gap that exists between phasing out oil-based fuel, and phasing in some sort of completely different renewable source.

I assume anyone buying hybrids right now is taking them to the dealership for service, but eventually I assume the private mechanics and automotive stores of the country will have to catch up as well. Unless they already have?

Funny thing about techs getting trained on new product happens in the dealer service departments. Ususally it takes a year before we see any sort of training on anything.

Take for example GM has launched several new cars one being the Pontiac Torrent. The salesman have already recieved training on it yet we the techs won't see one till we have to fix it. GM cans only about selling cars, fixing them is a necassary evil to them. Usually I work on something new for a year before I even hear about a school for it. Dealers don't like to send people to school because every class I go to cost 1K for 2 days of class.

In every dealer you will always have the guy who enjoys working on something new, I am one of those. The bigger the challenge the more I enjoy it. I get a kick out of fixing things others can't in my shop. I'm not saying I am GM's answer to fixing cars but I know my way around them. I learn everyday, it never stops.

As for Hybrids GM is behind the 8 ball and needs to get with it. The higher gas prices go the more people want cars that burn less gas. Hybirds are one way to go as time passes other newer ideas will come about. We have many changes and challenges going on some of them are electric steering, 32 volt electric systems, A V-8 engine that shuts off 4 cylinders to save gas. We also have an engine without a starter or alt, the flywheel is a big coil which does the starting and charging. When you come to a stop the engine shuts off till you touch the gas the engine starts back up. In the future you will see electric braking systems to begin with. It's amazing what is coming and some of it scares me to death.

[Muscletang]

Originally Posted by BROCK YATES

Zakaria ignores the wallet-busting cost of producing, refining, and distributing methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and other alternative fuels—a concept that has long since been hooted down by people who understand the harsh realities of energy production.

Hmm I wonder why? Who controls the producing, refining, and distribution of fuels? Hmmm I wonder who. THE DAMN OIL COMPANIES!!! Why would they spend money on a more reliable source of energy when they can make so much more money with oil? Dumbass.

[Heep]

Originally Posted by Flatrater

GM cans only about selling cars, fixing them is a necassary evil to them.

Actually your whole post is completely true, except this - selling cars produces little, if any profit - profits can only be made when cars spend as little time as possible in the dealers, thus, salesmen are trained on the product way ahead of time. On the other hand, the service (and parts) section of a dealership is usually the only truly profitable area, and profit is made by having the cars come in. The introduction of "book time" servicing changes things a bit, but in "traditional" dealers, the longer a car is in there, the more money it generates. In addition, the more techs you have working at once, the more cars can be fixed at once, meaning more money. Compound this with the idea that real-world fixing produces more expertise than profit-reducing training, and you can see that in the interests of profit, GM would much rather you learn first-hand.



Or so I understand, anyways.



Back on to the topic of hybrids - I'm not necessarily sure that they are the future, but they are a step. Perhaps they are not so much an objective step in producing more efficient vehicles, but they are certainly a subjective step in thinking we're progressing.

I used to be opposed to the change - don't take my engine away! - but I've realized that 90% of the time, I drive my car to get somewhere, not for recreation. Therefore, I have no problem, and actually embrace the idea of having a car which can hold tons of crap, has a good stereo, and runs for $5 a month. If that were to become the case, "fun" cars, both classic (and thus being saved purely for enjoyment rather than economic benefit) and modern (a Lamborghini will never be mass-transport), would be just that - recreational vehicles, just like a snowmobile or boat.

In fact, here's a piece by Jay Leno, which I was overjoyed to read, as it perfectly summed up these thoughts I've had over the past couple years:

Originally Posted by Jay Leno, Octane magazine (Octane, Peterborough, UK), Issue 25, July 2005

Long term, what I think will happen, and as a car enthusiast what I would like to see happen, is to see more hybrids, see more fuel-efficient vehicles, especially hydrogen power, and then cars you actually enjoy driving become essentially recreational vehicles.

No one ever complains about the gas mileage on their jet-ski or any of those things. They put the gas in and they go, then they put more in. I think your high-performance cars will then become like that. They'll become a weekend vehicle, much as classic cars are now. Do you know anyone who drives a mid-'60s hemi-car that actually uses it on a daily basis? No, they'd be broke. Bill Gates would be reduced from a billionaire to a millionaire if he tried to do that.

[ifidie2nite]

Originally Posted by 2strokebloke

I'd rather hear him talk about how airbags kill more people than they save.

I also think Yates should do his homework about alternative fuels, considering that alcohol fuels like ethanol can be cheaper to produce than gasoline (but he is right about hydrogen).

Exactly. Ethanol and biodiesel can wean this nation off imports quicker and cheaper, than if we went and spent hundreds of billions of taxpayer-dollars to develop a hydrogen system we wont even use in our lifetime.

[ATonyMac]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is not every locomotive on the tracks a hybrid -- a diesel engine turning a generator driving electric motors that drive the wheels?? How 'bout all them big- arsed ships and supertankers?? If those hybrids can move several gozilion tons, why am I stuck with some nasssssty Japeconobox?? I want a hybrid for my 3/4 ton, 4x4 Suburban that'll pull four big, fat horses at 80 mph, getting 22 mpg with the a/c blowing cold and the dvd going loud! Not some foriegn econocoffin that loses 5mph when you turn on the one windshield wiper. >:P

Ever drove a skid steer, like a bobcat? Those are diesel/hydraulic hybrids, with a five point harness that's needed. Why are all the road vehicles such POS's compared to what we already have? I have my suspicions......

[Steel]

I dont know if diesel-electric trains and ships would count as hybrid in the modern sense of the word. For them, using big fat cables and electrics motors is a much more effecient way to the the power from the motor the wheels without having an overcomplicated and power hogging mechanical link from the engine to the wheels. I guess it also allows the engine to run at a constant speed... either for power when needed, work effeciency, or fuel efficiency.

Not a bad idea for automobiles if you think about it. Go to your car in the morning, start up your 4-6-8 cylinder diesel motor (cause we all know they're just better), then it shoots to 2500 RPM and pretty much stays there. While you're stopped, it'll charge batteries that you have on board.. if that's not needed i guess it'll drop to a fast idle... and if you really need a lot of power right NOW, the engine can jump to say, 3500 RPM, and use the power from the batteries at the same time and get you moving...

hmm..
PATENT PENDING!