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| Philosophizing Throwing around ideas about life, the universe, and everything. |
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#1
01-22-2002, 08:56 PM
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Newcomb's paradox
This paradox is named after William Newcomb, a physicist who thought it up in 1960 while playing with the prisoner's dilemma. I paraphrase from Martin Gardner's fine book "Knotted Doughnuts and Other Mathematical Entertainments" (1986) available at fine booksellers near you.
Newcomb's Paradox There are two closed boxes, B1 and B2, on a table. B1 contains $1,000. B2 contains either nothing, or $1 million. You do not know which. You have a one-time, irrevocable choice between only these two actions: 1) Take what is in both boxes. 2) Take only what is in B2. But, of course, there is a catch.  Some time before you entered the room, a superior Being (god, alien intellegence, supercomputer from the future, whatever) has made a prediction about your choice. That Being has always been correct in all its past predictions about people, and it is almost certainly correct about you. So here's the catch: If the Being expects you to take both boxes (choice #1), it placed nothing in B2. If the Being expects you to only take B2 (choice #2), it placed the $1 million in B2. The boxes are now well sealed, you're not allowed to touch them until you've decided, and there is no way you can determine what is inside of them. You understand the situation fully, and the Being knows that you do. So: Which choice do you make?  
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#3
01-22-2002, 09:03 PM
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I had to think a bit just to figure out what the catch really meant.
I'd take choice #2, collecting B2 and my $1 million; that thing better be right...
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#4
01-23-2002, 12:45 AM
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I take choice 1. betting on the fact that the thing thought I would take choice 2.
If I'm wrong I'm $1000 better off anyway so it's all good.
__________________
Darkness.  The new official owner of www.darkness.co.nz (but theres nothing there yet.) ------------ "Have you seen Star Wars? The Darkness is the Force on crack"
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#5
01-23-2002, 11:39 AM
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100% B2 all the way.
I figure that $1,000 is not that much money and I could get that in Bingo, horse racing, or a good night in Vegas. But how often do you have a 50/50 chance at 1 million dollars? For me it's a no brainer. Perhaps if I was raised an only child I would instantly think to take both boxes.
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#6
01-23-2002, 07:35 PM
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well, since I am a safe person and always take the sure thing. I would take choice number 2 and collect my 1 million
how do I know I would get the million? because I always take the safe bet and never gamble. This tendency I have, the super alien/god/computer would know. So I go against it for the first time in my life and voila, I am a million dollars richer :flash: :flash: :flash: :smoka:
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#7
01-23-2002, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
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#8
01-23-2002, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Its not really a paradox, as there is a correct answer. As Marc said, take box Two. To make it a Paradox you would need to add a few extra conditions, like the Being was evil and didn't want you to get any money.
__________________
Connecting the Auto Enthusiasts
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#9
01-23-2002, 08:12 PM
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well if the being knew what you were going to do, then it wouldn't really be a "prediction". and if that was true, then everybody would have to pick the 1000 bucks because you are guaranteed that.. if he knew exactly what you were going to do, then it would be a 50/50 shot at the million, it would be a 0% chance..
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#10
01-23-2002, 08:16 PM
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Hehehe... Sure it would make sense that people would choose the first box, because it's logical to want to pick the option where you're guaranteed a return. But people are rarely so logical in tha face of such a decision. Ever see "Let's Make A Deal?"
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#13
01-23-2002, 09:18 PM
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B2, its all or nothing.
however, what would have made this more interesting is if you hadnt told us the "catch" Fritz. see, if you had just said, "there is a being that knows what your going to choose" and explain that to us, then told us what would have happened if we picked 1 or 2 later on in the thread, we would have known what our circumstances would have been. just a thought, im probably wrong.
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#14
01-23-2002, 09:21 PM
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Quote:
Here's the counterpoint to what's been voiced here: The Being has mad it's decision beforehand, let's say one week ago, and the boxes are now sealed - the million is either in B2 or it is not. If the money is already in B2, it will stay there whichever you choose; it's not going to disappear. If it's not already there, it's not going to suddenly appear if you only choose B2. There is no "backward causality" - your present actions cannot alter what the Being did last week. So why not just take both boxes? If B2 is filled, you get $1,001,000; if B2 is empty, you get $1000. If you are so foolish as to only take B2, you can't get more than $1 million, and you might even get nothing! Clearly it is to your advantage to take both! It's funny, I posed this question to a group of friends about a year ago, and they all answered opposite of the consensus here; also stating that it wasn't much of a paradox.  That is the neat thing about this. Everyone almost immediately thinks they have the right and obvious answer, but they're usually split right down the middle about which choice they make.:smoker2:
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#15
01-23-2002, 09:24 PM
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PS> Some seem to have missed a very important point of the paradox statement. Your two choices are: 1) take BOTH boxes, or 2) take JUST B2. If the choice was to take just B1 or just B2, there would be no paradox.
MTBN - taking both boxes is choice #1. jay@af - taking just B1 is not an option. 
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