Western downfall, future power???

[Joseph1082]

Do guys think that eventually the West will fall and the new "center" of the World will be in the East. You know, the emerging of China, potential of India, and Japan and Korea are still wildcards. They have half the world's people and could become Eco-bloc the likes of which we have not yet seen. What are your thoughts on this... what will things look like 100years from now?

[YogsVR4]

As soon as China moves away from socialism and lets her people free, it'll be an economic powerhouse. The problem with China (and India as well) as that they only have pockets of advancement. Most of the interior areas still speak different languages and live in poverty. The coastal cities have been updated and the rest has been left to fend for itself.

Secondly, the fact that Japan, China and Korea can manufacture goods that people want is a grand thing. For them and the rest of the world. However, as can be seen by whats happened with Japan and Korea, there is a limit to how far manufacturing can take the country. Its solid and stable, but its a sector that is always waiting for soemthing to be created and not doing the creation. (I know its not an all or nothing).

China also has big problems with the fact the army owns many of the businesses there. Which means they are kept running even if they are not profitable.

Japan still hasn't fixed their banking problems which has kept them in a recession for nearly the last decade. Korea is going down the same path. The goverment props up businesses to keep its people employed. The money it forces banks to loan aren't paid back. The banks run to the government to get some of the money. The goverment gives tax money to the banks to prop them up but the bank didn't make any money on the investment (loans). So now the goverment is taxing its people to prop up a bank that should fail that was propping up businesses that should fail.

While Japanese auto manufacturing can be the envy of the world and a handful of electronic monsters are the envy of the world, there are few other industries doing well.

Any largly populated countries that free the people to be innovative and not bury them under red tape, will have a vibrant economy and could become an economic powerhouse to rival the US (the EU might be able to do it in the next decade based soley on it continueing to add nations)

[justacruiser]

Originally Posted by YogsVR4

As soon as China moves away from socialism and lets her people free, it'll be an economic powerhouse. The problem with China (and India as well) as that they only have pockets of advancement. Most of the interior areas still speak different languages and live in poverty. The coastal cities have been updated and the rest has been left to fend for itself.

Secondly, the fact that Japan, China and Korea can manufacture goods that people want is a grand thing. For them and the rest of the world. However, as can be seen by whats happened with Japan and Korea, there is a limit to how far manufacturing can take the country. Its solid and stable, but its a sector that is always waiting for soemthing to be created and not doing the creation. (I know its not an all or nothing).

China also has big problems with the fact the army owns many of the businesses there. Which means they are kept running even if they are not profitable.

Japan still hasn't fixed their banking problems which has kept them in a recession for nearly the last decade. Korea is going down the same path. The goverment props up businesses to keep its people employed. The money it forces banks to loan aren't paid back. The banks run to the government to get some of the money. The goverment gives tax money to the banks to prop them up but the bank didn't make any money on the investment (loans). So now the goverment is taxing its people to prop up a bank that should fail that was propping up businesses that should fail.

While Japanese auto manufacturing can be the envy of the world and a handful of electronic monsters are the envy of the world, there are few other industries doing well.

Any largly populated countries that free the people to be innovative and not bury them under red tape, will have a vibrant economy and could become an economic powerhouse to rival the US (the EU might be able to do it in the next decade based soley on it continueing to add nations)

Damn Yogs, you're on a roll with excellent responses! Yeah, China would be something to wonder about if they could actually allow their economy to prosper. One other thing though, with so many people in China, you would have an insatiable economy it seems, but with that many people, they would probably end up importing a huge percentage of their raw materials, they just don't have all the oil/ore/good cropland needed for that many people to live like American middle class does.

[Joseph1082]

See, thing is, I'm predicting, that, alothough the EU may expand, it's population growth itself is low, as compared to the US. I belive right now the "euro" has upwards of 300 mil people, but the US is close behind, with a greater population growth. 100 years from now, the US might even surpass the "Euro", we may reach 450 mil people. No matter what, I doubt European GNP will ever suprpass America's.
But in 100years, an economically developed China and India would have GNPs signifigantly higher than that of the US, and together with the added wealth of the finally united Kore and Japan, the east would undoubtly have by far the world's largest share of GNP and in so dominate World economics the way the US dos now. Of course, I do believe business will still be conducted in English, which by then will be taking firm hold as the global language.

[originalmike]

Originally Posted by YogsVR4

The goverment props up businesses to keep its people employed. The money it forces banks to loan aren't paid back.

That really pisses me off. Not only is it bad for the economy of the country, it's also bad for American businesses because they don't have the leverage to control the market without the help of the government. Because of this, the place where my dad works (Micron Technologies - microchips) might go out of of business because Asian companies are able to udersell them while keeping afloat from gov't funding.

[YogsVR4]

Originally Posted by originalmike

That really pisses me off. Not only is it bad for the economy of the country, it's also bad for American businesses because they don't have the leverage to control the market without the help of the government. Because of this, the place where my dad works (Micron Technologies - microchips) might go out of of business because Asian companies are able to udersell them while keeping afloat from gov't funding.

No doubt that it casts an unlevel playing field. Its not sustainable in the long run which will help people here but thats of little comfort to the people it effects now.

[zebrathree]

Interesting thread.

Let me reply when I get home.