This is bizzarre....

[taranaki]

Newsweek Poll: Campaign 2004
Saturday January 24, 11:12 am ET
Kerry Leads Dems With 30 Percent; Edwards Follows at 13 Percent; Dean Slips, Even With Clark at 12 Percent
52 Percent of Voters Don't Want to See Bush Re-Elected (44% Do), 37 Percent Strongly Want to See Him Re-Elected, 47 Percent Strongly Do Not
But a Large Majority (78%) Says That it is Very Likely (40%) or Somewhat Likely (38%) That he Will Get a Second Term


NEW YORK, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Senator John Kerry has taken the lead nationally among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters over Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. Kerry leads the field with 30 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards with 13 percent. Howard Dean falls to 12 percent from 24 percent in the last Newsweek Poll two weeks ago, and is even with General Wesley Clark, also at 12 percent.
ADVERTISEMENT


Kerry also leads the pack of Democratic contenders among registered voters as the candidate who would have a better chance of beating President George W. Bush if the election were held today. A Kerry-Bush match-up would have Kerry up by 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. A Clark and Bush match-up would be a close race, with Bush at 48 percent and Clark at 47 percent. Bush would have an edge over Edwards (49% to 46%). Yet, with a plus or minus margin of error, these match-ups result in a statistical dead heat. And the President would beat Dean (50% to 45%) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (49% to 45%).

And Democrats and Democratic learners also think Sen. John Kerry has the best chance (48%) of defeating Bush in November, and is the candidate mostly likely to do so (43%). Howard Dean follows at 26 percent (a drop from 38% in the 12/11-12/03 Newsweek Poll). Only 15 percent think Dean would most likely defeat Bush. In third is Wesley Clark at 23 percent, and John Edwards at 22 percent. Only 14 percent say Joe Lieberman has a good chance of beating George Bush.

And more registered voters (54%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (74%) have a favorable opinion of Kerry followed by Lieberman with 48 percent of registered voters, but only 56 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners. Edwards follows with 60 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, but only 46 percent of registered voters. However, 42 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean, though a 57-percent majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners has a favorable opinion of the Vermont Governor.

And the combination of Democrats considered the best ticket to beat Bush in November among Democrats and Democratic leaners would be Kerry-Edwards or Kerry-Clark, both at 21 percent, followed by Kerry-Dean (19%).

Meanwhile, a week after President Bush's State of the Union address, his approval rating has fallen to 50 percent from 54 percent in the last Newsweek Poll (1/8-9/04). Yet, a 52-percent majority of registered voters says it would not like to see him re-elected to a second term. Only 44 percent say they would like to see him re-elected, a four-point drop from the last Newsweek Poll. (Of that, 37% strongly want to see him re-elected, and 47% strongly do not). However, a large majority of voters (78%) says that it is very likely (40%) or somewhat likely (38%) that Bush will in fact be re- elected to a second term in office. Only 10 percent believe it is not too likely or not at all likely (10%).

With 52 percent of registered voters saying they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. this year, the issues that are very important in helping them determine who they will vote for are: the economy and jobs (83%); health care (75%) and education (74%); the situation in Iraq and terrorism and homeland security (70%). The least important is the appointing of new Supreme Court justices and federal judges (42%).

A 53-percent majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they are more inclined to vote for the candidate who comes closest to their way of thinking on the issues rather than the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Bush (39%). And the large majority (71%), says it's very important that the Democratic presidential nominee has clear-cut alternatives to Bush on issues like Iraq and taxes; can attract young people and other first-time voters to turn out and support the Democratic ticket (70%); understands the concerns of working families because he grew up in one (64%); has foreign policy and national defense experience (56%), and comes across as even-tempered and appeals to voters in the South (54%).

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on January 22-23, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[taranaki]

Am I reding this right?

52% don't want Bush back in,but 78% think he'll get in anyway?

Is there a flaw in the democratic process,or ar the people who want a change of President just not going to vote?

[TexasF355F1]

Originally Posted by taranaki

Am I reding this right?

52% don't want Bush back in,but 78% think he'll get in anyway?

Is there a flaw in the democratic process,or ar the people who want a change of President just not going to vote?

Probably a combination of both. A lot of people in the U.S. like to bitch about the current President(no matter who is in office). But when it comes down to it, they just don't vote.

In my Poli Sci 1 class last summer, the prof asked how many people were registered to vote. It was shocking that out of I believe 35 kids, only between 7 and 10 of us were actually registered.

I won't even know until my Fall '04 semester starts if I'll be able to make it home to vote.

[syr74]

I think a lot of people would rather have someone else than the sitting President, but then turn around and say their only alternative on the ballot is worse. You know, the old "I am not crazy about G.W. but if I have to pick between him and Al Sharpton I'll take G.W." routine.

[Flatrater]

I agree with syr74!

Its the grass isn't always greener idea. We know Bush makes mistakes but we also know their is worse out there! Like I always say we pick the lesses of 2 evils!

[Flatrater]

I agree with syr74!

Its the grass isn't always greener idea. We know Bush makes mistakes but we also know their is worse out there! Like I always say we pick the lesser of 2 evils!

[YogsVR4]

Originally Posted by taranaki

Am I reding this right?

52% don't want Bush back in,but 78% think he'll get in anyway?

Is there a flaw in the democratic process,or ar the people who want a change of President just not going to vote?

Those numbers look better then they did for Clinton and Reagan the year they were up for reelection. It obviously didn't mean much then (both won in landslides).

[taranaki]

I'm not really interested in the figures,I'm just trying to figure out why there's a huge credibility gap beween those who'd rather nothave him back and those who think he'll get in anyway.

[YogsVR4]

I think Texas said it best. Most people are registered voters - its easy to get done right when you get your drivers lisence. But, less then half of those people will vote. The ones coming to the poles are ones with strong opinions one way or the other. Most people are uncaring (which is a shame) and for the most part complain about whoever is in office.Then you take into account the people they asked that aren't registered, but say they are - nearly all of those oppose whoever is in office.

The better polls (though relying on truth from the person being called) are those done with likely voters instead of registered voters.

[taranaki]

Seems bizarre that the leadership of the most powerful country on earth is decided by those who stay at home on election day.

[DGB454]

Just out of curiosity...how is the leader of NZ put into office?

[taranaki]

Originally Posted by DGB454

Just out of curiosity...how is the leader of NZ put into office?

Proportional representation.

[DGB454]

So does that mean you elect him/her ?
I think this is kind of how it goes for your executive branch.Please correct me if I'm wrong. My knowlege of NZ is limited.

chief of state: (Queen Elizabeth II ) represented by Governor General Dame Silvia Cartwright .
Head of government: Prime Minister Helen Clark and Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen
cabinet: Executive Council appointed by the governor general on the recommendation of the prime minister .
elections: none; the monarch is hereditary; governor general appointed by the monarch; following legislative elections, the leader of the majority party or the leader of a majority coalition is usually appointed prime minister by the governor general; deputy prime minister appointed by the governor general.

No elections for your executive branch? Why is that?
Don't you want to choose who leads you? Are these people just figureheads with no real power?
Is the legislative branch the ones with the real power? I understand you do elect these individuals.

[syr74]

Originally Posted by taranaki

Seems bizarre that the leadership of the most powerful country on earth is decided by those who stay at home on election day.

Hey Taranaki, we agree on something. Ironic that one of the freedoms Americans have is to not participate in the system that gives them those freedoms.

Although, I will also say that I think polling is a "Kentucky windage" kind of science at best.

[syr74]

Oh, just to let you know one of the, ahem, beauties of the media's polling methods. Once, I received a phone call conducting a random poll for some new agency. It is also the only time I have been contacted to be in a poll like this.

When they asked how I would describe myself in terms of my political affiliations I simply replied "conservative". At which time the nice lady hung up on me. (Yeah, laugh it up my liberal friends) I know of two other "conservative" friends of mine this has happened to. I realize that the vast majority of major news corporations are liberal, but it seems to me that they are more concerned with making the polls say what they want than what the public's opinion actually is.