recession

[flyguy123]

Does anyone else think that we are in a recession? Business growth is sluggish, businesses stop expanding, unemployment goes up and employment goes down, and housing prices decline. Anaylist are predicting that oil will be over $100 a barrel by the end of 2008. The oil alone will push us in a recession for sure if were not already in one.

[Oz]

No, not a full blown recession, but the US Economy is in worlds of trouble. Spiralling budget defecit in the billions, shaky stock market, reserve bank cutting interests rates. It's only so long before the bubble is going to burst, and I think it'll be sooner rather than later.

[Steel]

Unless theres some major changes with the budget, we're fucked.

Thanks Bush. You can use my pockets as your personal little war piggybank whenever you want. Heck, lets pick a fight with Iran now that we're at it, right?

[00accord44]

Turn that frown upside down. Once the stock market slides in the gutter, I plan to invest a substantial amount in select companies while they're down and hold on while they rebuild and bring the values back up over time. Identifying the companies that will have the ability to bounce back is the hard part. But if I'm successful I should be able to put my kids through college without touching my own money. And since I figure I got at least 24 years til that time comes its worth a shot.



But to answer the question, I'd say by economic definition we aren't. I don't have any stats or figures to back it up and I don't feel like looking, but I am inclined to believe that the US hasn't been in steady economic decline for two straight quarters. But on assessment of the last couple years on average, the overall picture has gotten worse. With the panic-striken housing market the economy has been fragile, and the fed has tried to soothe it with very little success. Historically, war has had a positive effect on the US economy after its over, but much of that has to do with the nation's support of war efforts and active role in driving economic progress. That has definitely not been the situation with the war in Iraq

[ericn1300]

Originally Posted by flyguy123

Does anyone else think that we are in a recession? Business growth is sluggish, businesses stop expanding, unemployment goes up and employment goes down, and housing prices decline. Anaylist are predicting that oil will be over $100 a barrel by the end of 2008. The oil alone will push us in a recession for sure if were not already in one.

Let's see... the dollar is at a long time low against all other currencies, heck even the Canadians are about to pull ahead of us. The housing market is in a slump due to unregulated sub prime lending. The fed lowers the interest rate in responce which might bail out Wall Street but won't stop the foreclosures, and in the mean time lowers outside investment in the US because of the lower rate of return, lowering the dollar further. All the good manufacturing jobs have been shipped off shore and now the service jobs are being "outsourced". Productivity is up at most American companies but pay stays the same as the rich siphon off the profits. The size of the federal govement has expolded over the past six years along with the deficet. The war is costing us more than any other bubget item and is mostly "off budget". A value meal at McDonalds is now more than the minimum wage and health care for a family of 4 is over $15,000. But don't worry, recessions only affect the bottom 95% of the population and I'm only one winning lottery ticket away from getting above all of it.

[BNaylor]

Originally Posted by flyguy123

Anaylist are predicting that oil will be over $100 a barrel by the end of 2008.

The same analysts said that two years ago back in 2005 stating that oil would hit $100 a barrel in 2007. So far it has not happened.

There are many factors to determine whether we are in a recession and the economy varies nationwide. First indicator is the GDP has to have two or more negative consecutive quarters of a year to start.

[alfonso2501]

Off topic, but during a recession do value stocks & funds do better then others?