Unemployment down

[TexasF355F1]

http://start.earthlink.net/newsartic...kingnews_story
While its only around 300,000 new jobs, and those being low income, part time jobs i still think its a positive sign. All growth takes time and this is just the beginning, although it will still be years before were much better.

[T4 Primera]

I know you'd rather I post the link but it's one of those that changes content each day, so I'll cut & paste the commentary.....

November 9th, 2003
WEISS COMMENTS


Symptoms and Cures
-- November 7, 2003

The good news is the patient is feeling better. The bad news is he's not cured. That's how you could summarize the latest economic data, including the robust job growth reported on Friday.

126,000 new jobs were created in October, which is certainly good news. However, a few things still worry us:

* It has been estimated that between 150,000 and 200,000 new jobs need to be created every month, just to stabilize the unemployment rate. This month's total is the first time in nearly a year we've even come close to the bottom of that range.

* Manufacturing jobs are still disappearing. 24,000 manufacturing jobs either vanished or were shipped overseas in October. Are former well paid factory workers now taking McJobs or working the floor at Wal-Mart for minimum wage? It's quite possible.

The improving economy is akin to a person who gets chronic headaches. The sufferer can take aspirin to make the symptom go away temporarily, but isn't addressing the cause.

That is essentially what the government has done with our own economic headache. Keeping interest rates artificially low, filling consumers' wallets with tax rebates, and enormous deficit spending has stuffed so much cash into the economy that it had to improve. The problem is the government can't keep up this scheme much longer. And when rates go up and the cash spigot in Washington dries up, it will be a bitter pill to swallow.

As I've opined elsewhere, maybe the US$ needs to devalue further to stem the outflow of manufacturing jobs. The US government can't keep spending at this rate indefinitely and the domestic consumer fuel tank is running on borrowed time.

Overseas manufacturers may also find that a combination of falling US consumer demand (due to lower personal incomes) and the possibility of harsher trade tarrifs (job protection measures) for exporting to the US market, forces them compete more aggressively in other markets. Thus moving spending on marketing etc to places where consumers are not so strapped.

...Finally, regardless of your opinion on the middle east situation, there also exists the possibility of this leading to overseas consumer resistance (boycotts) to US manufactured goods. Whether this gathers any momentum or not is yet to be seen.

[YogsVR4]

Its a good sign for the folks who got a job alright. I'm sure there will be the nay-sayers who'll slap in a 'but' comment or two, however. Things are looking up once again. Its a wait and see time now on if this can be sustained for at least several quarters. That'll allow most people to find jobs who want them.

[taranaki]

wow....6% unemployment.

ours is 4.4%.Lowest that it has been in 16 years.The NZ dollar is stronger than it has ever been in many years as well.

[blindside.AMG]

Originally Posted by taranaki

wow....6% unemployment.

ours is 4.4%.Lowest that it has been in 16 years.The NZ dollar is stronger than it has ever been in many years as well.

And your point is..................????????

[Cbass]

I think his point is that the US economy is in the pits

I think my point is that this is a bubble from the one time tax rebate, and that the economy is not going to miraculously turn around because of it.

[freakray]

So, 300,000 new jobs were created, yet 366,000 new claims were submitted for unemployment benefits......

http://www.cnn.com/money/2003/11/13/...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Is it me or are there still more new claims for unemployment being filed than the number of jobs being created?

I don't care what the 'economists' say, if there are still more new claims being submitted than the number of jobs being created, there is still a problem!

Keep in mind, the new claims only add on top of the people already claiming, so thats 366,000 more people fighting for the 300,000 jobs on top of those already unemployed the previous week that were fighting for those jobs!

[T4 Primera]

Originally Posted by YogsVR4

Its a good sign for the folks who got a job alright. I'm sure there will be the nay-sayers who'll slap in a 'but' comment or two, however. Things are looking up once again. Its a wait and see time now on if this can be sustained for at least several quarters. That'll allow most people to find jobs who want them.

It's not a case of there always being nay-sayers - it's about looking at ALL the relevant information (like in freakray's post above), not just picking out the stuff that sounds good or makes people feel better.

Nay-Sayers : Definition : People who point out things that you wish were not true.

[Pick]

Originally Posted by Cbass

I think his point is that the US economy is in the pits

I think my point is that this is a bubble from the one time tax rebate, and that the economy is not going to miraculously turn around because of it.

But the creation of these new jobs might be a result of business owners being able to pay for new employees. Nobody suggested the tax refund is a quick-fix solution. I say wait til Thanksgiving and Christmas shopping really begins to see the result of our tax refund.

[Cbass]

That wasn't a very big tax rebate, and I think most people will have spent that extra money by now, with the exception of people who were saving it specifically for Christmas.