please do the math!!!

[hardrockhillbilly]

To All,
My curiousity got the best of me several days ago. I wondered what the cost of ownership would be between two of the same model cars, the only exception being that one was a hybrid and the other a normal gas engine. I chose the 2009 Honda Civic DX and 2009 Civic Hybrid as my test subjects.

The basics...

The Hybrid starts at $24,500, the DX, about $17,000.

Combined city/hwy fuel mileage is 42.5 and 29, respectively

Assume that you will drive 16,000 miles per year...and keep your car 10 years. At the end of the 10th year, the cars will roll up 160,000 miles each.

More boring details...

Assume that gas will average $3 per gallon in those 10 years (wishful thinking!). In those 10 years the Hybrid will consume 3,765 gallons of gas or $11,295, while the DX will cost $16,551 in gas (a difference of $5,256). Assume also that routine maint. is performed on both cars with no major repairs. The one thing missing being that the Hybrid batteries will need to be replaced every 80,000 miles at a cost of $3,000 each changeout or $6,000 total (info I picked up from a little research).

Now the fun part...

You will have spent $5,256 extra in gas for the DX. However, recall that you spent an additional $7,500 for the Hybrid and $6,000 in batteries. You have actually lost $8,244 driving the "green" Hybird for 10 years!!!

Reality setting in...

Honestly, besides the lower emissions, and consuming less gas, you have to ask yourself IS IT REALLY WORTH IT? The $8,244 could be used in so many other ways...

replace outdated appliances with energy efficient models
install solar panels to reduce your dependence on the electric company
invest in "green" companies who are exploring alternative energy sources

I could go on and on.

Bottom line, the media and slick advertising campaigns are hoping that you will not pick up your calculator and your common sense and do some basic math to find out the truth.

God Bless you and God Bless the USA
(we could certainly use the help)

[Gohan Ryu]

Not everyone buys a hybrid expecting to save money even in the long run. I know two guys who have Toyota Prius's. They did their math (they're both engineers) before they bought their cars and they both know that all things considered, they'll spend more owning the hybrid.

They bought their hybrids to save the planet, not save their wallets. They know they're not making much of a difference but as one of them put it, "I'm making a statement about the environment". I don't know if they're familiar with the "making batteries is environmentally unfriendly" arguement.

[serge_saati]

You forget many details in your calculation:
*You forget to include the brake pads replacements (hybrid worns less the pads)
*You forget the trans fluid replacement (hybrids have CVT)
*you forget the starter replacement (hybrids start in motion most of time)
*also the 12V battery (hybrids doesn't have one)
*You forget to include petrol engine maintenance (pure petrol engine needs more maintenance cause it's always needed).

This should include: spark plugs, coil pack, fuel filter, air filter, drive belt, timing belt, thermostat, water pump, coolant replacement, alternator, P/S pump, emission sensors, PCV & EGR valve, muffler, fuel pump...

With an hybrid, we'll spend less time under the hood or in the garage.
I like your math, but can you do it again with these new considerations?
Take in consideration that hybrid make the 30% of this mileage in town.

[akboss]

Good post to Hardrockhillbilly, interesting numbers. But don't believe all the statistics you find about batteries wearing out - there are a lot of consumers that are uneasy about the technology and are resistant to change, and just plain don't like the idea. It's a legitimate concern and something everyone in the market for a hybrid should independently research, but from what I've come across from valid sources, the batteries are the most reliable part of the car. Toyota warrants the hybrid drivetrain in their Prius model for 8 years or 160,000 Kms - and that's not the lifecycle, just the warranty. Read this quote from ConsumerGuide automotive:

"Toyota claims that not one has required a battery replacement due to malfunction or "wearing out." The only replacement batteries sold--at the retail price of $3000--have been for cars that were involved in accidents. Toyota further claims that the nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery packs used in all Prius models are expected to last the life of the car with very little to no degradation in power capability."

As we can look at a laptop from 3 years ago and look at one today, the difference in technology is vast - you may say they both run Windows, but beneath that it's completely new. Same with batteries. Because it is such a growth market people are investing in R&D like crazy, millions are spent daily to create better, more efficient, more reliable batteries. What was once a Nickel metal-hydride battery is now a more powerful and efficient lithium ion that weighs half as much.

But, while I am a supporter of living responsibly, I don't think hybrids are the answer. You are correct in saying the costs may not be in the favour of the buyer, and again hybrid buyers are typically aware of that. But you have to take into account your type of driving. I live in Canada where our winters are cold and sub-zero for 4-5 months of the year. A hybrid is less efficient in cold temperatures, and the further north you go I would imagine the less it would be efficient. I also do a lot of highway/80+ km/h driving, where the electric motor is usually idle or in support but the car is being primarily powered by the gas motor.

I have also read studies that say, dollar for dollar, you are much better off to put your money into other eco-friendly initiatives to truly benefit the environment. Buying 'carbon offset credit' goes a lot further than driving a hybrid. For less than the cost of opting for the hybrid model, you can purchase enough carbon offsets to replace your entire carbon footprint, including car, home, and leisure/travel. Sounds silly but it's true. Hybrids are a statement for change rather than anything truly beneficial. In my opinion, they are boring to drive and more often than not ugly. Driving should be fun - give me an efficient turbo-4 and I'll buy some carbon credits and end up being more 'eco-friendly' in the end.

[serge_saati]

You must do you calculation again considering the battery warranty. This time compare the Camry hybrid and Camry CE. Take also parts replacements in consideration (post 3).

[Airjer_]

Originally Posted by serge_saati

*also the 12V battery (hybrids doesn't have one)

Sure about that?

[Airjer_]

Originally Posted by serge_saati

This should include: spark plugs, coil pack, fuel filter, air filter, drive belt, timing belt, thermostat, water pump, coolant replacement, alternator, P/S pump, emission sensors, PCV & EGR valve, muffler, fuel pump...

Most if not all the newer Honda's and Toyota's 4 cylinders are now timing chain driven. I highly doubt that most of the things you mention will fail after only 160k. The spark plugs and filter I will agree. The hybrids will still need some of those basic services during the 160k comparison!

[serge_saati]

Originally Posted by Airjer_

Sure about that?

No, you're right. Hybrid does have an 12V auxiliary battery. But it rarely needs to be replaced, cause it's not used a lot. If the car has rested for too long and batt is old, a single jump start is enough to make the car run for long time. It's not the case with a gas car, cause it need at least 600amps at each start.

[serge_saati]

Originally Posted by Airjer_

I highly doubt that most of the things you mention will fail after only 160k.

Are you telling me that pumps, alternator, sensors can last 160K on a Toyota/Honda? My Windstar has 150K and all these parts have been replaced at least twice.

I know someone who have an Oldsmobile 95, 120K miles, he replaced water pump twice.

[Airjer_]

Originally Posted by serge_saati

It's not the case with a gas car, cause it need at least 600amps at each start.

Wow, 600 amps! I had no idea. I wonder how Honda gets a way with a 350CCA battery?

100 to 150 amps would be about the normal amperage draw for most cars. Some more some less but definitely not 600amps.

Funny how both cars you mentioned where "domestic cars". If you have no experience with an important than how can you give advice on what goes bad an what doesn't? My Honda Prelude had 225k on it before the alternator when bad! Besides normal maintenance and an upper hose I never had to do anything else to it.

My Tacoma has just under 200k Everything and I mean everything is original except the tires, shocks, plugs, cap, rotor, wires, spark plugs, fuel filter, all the fluids, downstream O2 sensor (just recently), and the starter. The only reason why the starter was replaced under warranty was because it stayed engaged, it started the vehicle just fine!

I have also owned a Camry and a corolla and had no major issues with those as well.

Do things go wrong with the imports, absolutely! But there nothing like your Windstar!

[serge_saati]

Originally Posted by Airjer_

Wow, 600 amps! I had no idea. I wonder how Honda gets a way with a 350CCA battery?

100 to 150 amps would be about the normal amperage draw for most cars. Some more some less but definitely not 600amps.

Yes it depends on which engine. My Windstar 3.8L have a 1025 Amps battery (32°F). And 875CCA (0°F). So I think I need more than 150 amps to start...


I was not giving advice, I trust you if you tell that only spark plugs and fuel/air/trans filter... need to be replaced under 160K. The math will be adjusted on that.

If you guarantee me that, I'll buy a Toyota. I wasn't sarcastic.

[Airjer_]

Hardrock, I heard a discussion a while back about the prius having a larger environmental impact just to produce than the average full size truck would have over the life of the truck. Apparently the production of the batteries is the major concern. The nickle is mined in canada somewhere and the mine has a five mile dead zone around it. The nickle or whatever makes a trip around the world before the finished batteries and the car end up in the US.

I have never checked into it myself and the above is a faint recollection of what I had read, but it kind of makes you wonder if being environmentally responsible is REALLY being environmentally responsible?

[serge_saati]

Originally Posted by Airjer_

Most if not all the newer Honda's and Toyota's 4 cylinders are now timing chain driven. I highly doubt that most of the things you mention will fail after only 160k. The spark plugs and filter I will agree. The hybrids will still need some of those basic services during the 160k comparison!

Just to make a clarification, when you say 160K, you mean 160,000 miles or 160,000 km?
I'm doing the math again.

[Airjer_]

Whatever you would like. 160,000 miles, 160,000 kilometers, or 99,419.39 miles

[serge_saati]

I do the calculation again (considering the things we said) with a Camry Hybrid and a Camry LE.

Camry LE costs: 24900$ (in Canada)
Camry Hybrid costs: 30900$

we lost 6000$ up to now.

Camry LE consume 7.7L/100km mix
Camry Hybrid consume: 5.7L/100km

I assume we drive in place where it's not too cold/hot

Assuming we drive 25,000 km/year. In 10 years, we drive 250,000km
gas price: 1$/L in my area

Camry LE uses: 19,250$ in 10 years
Camry Hybrid uses: 14,250$ in 10 years

we save: 5,000$ on this

Assuming we choose the 72month/160,000km extended warranty
it will last 6 years, so 150,000km will covered in our case

Camry LE warranty costs: 1549$
Hybrid's costs: 1849$

we lost 300$ on that

if we replace brakes pads and disks each 40K on the gas car, we will replace it 3 times out of the warranty. It means 1350$.

with hybrid, we replace each 80k. So 2 times out of warr. so 900$

we save 450$ on that

the HV battery last 130,000km on hybrid. we replace it 1 time out of warr.

we loose 3000$ on that one

With the hybrid, government gave us 1500$ cash back, cause it uses only 5.7L/100km.

we save 1500$ on that


now for the parts: Airjer tolds that most of the parts that I mention wears out after 257,000km, so I'll not consider them. But I'll consider the rest.

the trans fluid will be replaced 2 time out of warr on the gas car. so 180$

we gain 180$

air filter will replaced 2 times on the gas and 1 time on hybrid. so 80-40=40$
we earn 40$

the 12V battery is replaced one time (out of warr) on the gas car

we gain 115$

the starter: 1 time (out of warranty) on LE

we earn 220$

the plugs will be replaced 1 time out of warr on LE and 0 time out of warr on hybrid.

we save 70$

interesting part

total: at overall we loose 1725$, it's not too much!
at least we save 10.25 tons of carbon dioxide and a lot of other emissions, so I take the hybrid!
Also, the Hybrid has more series options that the LE, such the dual zone A/C and heat.

The option no 2 is take the hybrid, and don't replace the battery if it's out of warranty. But we will loose fuel efficiency past 256,000 km.