[confusedaboutcars]

Conventional wisdom, along with various articles I've found on the internet, point out that car value takes a big depreciation hit during the first two years. They say that the actual percentage per year varies by make/model/# of miles/condition, but should range from 10%-20% per year for those first two years. (Correct me if I'm wrong, this is just my interpretation of the research I've done so far.)

However, after having done some general research on used vs. new car buying, I started looking at KBB and Truecar values for certain models as well as specific ads for used cars in my area. In particular, I'm interested in basic model Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas with less than 30k miles and made in 2008 or later. The KBB lists an excellently maintained 2008 Civic with 20,000 miles on it as worth over 15k. This amount is 83% of the cost of buying an equivalent new Civic today, meaning it only went down 17% in four years, where it should have gone down at least 30%. I feel that I am finding similar numbers for similar makes and models. Is the conventional wisdom wrong, or is the KBB value wrong?

Perhaps buying a late-model used really doesn't save money relative to the lowered lifespan of the car compared to new? Should I just try to get a good deal on a new Honda Fit? These cars seem to hold their value well. Financing thru the dealer isn't an issue--if you can help me figure out where to go from here, I would really appreciate it! Thank you.