Let me start by saying that I have not been building models for as long as some folks (in fact my wife would say that I don't build at all- I just like collecting kits, parts and tools!).
However, having followed this hobby for a number of years through my local club, Internet forums (like this great one!), and magazines, I see one thread recurring from time to time - where are the new kits coming from. We read about licensing complexities, tooling costs and consumer preferences before we start another rant about being under-served by the model industry.
Here's my take on where modelling might go.
The internet has accelerated the evolution of modelling beyond all expectations. You can use it to buy models and accessories, you can learn online how to do a better job of modelling, and you can bask in the adulation of your fellow modellers when you do a good job! I think that this is Model Web 1.0.
The next step comes when we use the web in similar fashion to music downloading. Yes, that's still illegal in some forms, but the music business is getting around to understanding the benefits of the model (no pun intended), and it has changed the way we buy music - think of the simplicity and convenience of iTunes. Imagine if we could buy models that way. No, I'm not talking about buying kits online as we currently do - that's just an incremental supply improvement. I'm thinking of something more radical.
Imagine buying a digital kit - a 3D CAD design which is rendered to solid form when you decide "that's the one I want". You could buy the 3D file from any designer (maybe MFH, Fujimi, your pal at the club who designed a transkit for the 550 Maranello street version you want to change to LM spec). You submit the file through an ordering portal that processes your order/ charge your card, etc. They would have the file converted to a solid model through a service that does that sort of thing (see
http://www.shapeways.com/themes/stai...inting_gallery), add the photoetch and other bits from a supply list of suitable parts and also have decals printed if necessary. They would then pack it all up and ship to you.
Now, why would this be radical?
Well, firstly, because the kits are produced on demand from digital files there will no longer be out of production kits. Stocking and packaging costs are driven down, and shipping costs are also reduced (you don't need to ship from Japan when 3D printers exist in every country). Economy of scale also comes into it. You don't have massive tooling costs for a limited run of a particular model, and because more people are building exactly the kits they like, more people will be building.
Secondly, it introduces more participants into the modelling business - the garage companies. We've had them until now on the fringes, producing transkits, decals, photoetch, special paint formulations. Now there's a new category - 3G designers. These folks take an idea and turn it into something substantial and digital. Somebody like stratos75 perhaps (
http://www.automotiveforums.com/vbul...=933184&page=2) or (
http://www.automotiveforums.com/vbul...mclaren&page=5). If you don't think folks are excited about his work and turning it into production then just read the posts!
Admittedly there are some kinks to be worked out before all of this comes about. 3D printing has a way to go yet (and thinking about it - maybe the 3D part only becomes a master for moulding). However, 3D printing has already evolved from being plastic/resin to metallic (see above link) so the parts are thinner/lighter/durable. Decal printing relies on big runs to be cost-effective, but there may be room for innovation there.
I'm sure the manufacturers like Revell will still have a market for their large run, general mass appeal kits to be stocked at your LHS/Toys R Us. For those of us who want more from modelling maybe this is the future.
I'd like to hear how you see the future playing out, and how the Internet can feature in this. Yes there are many reasons why it can't work, don't want to hear them. This is a moonshot vision exercise!
BTW- While looking at the Shapeways website look into the forum and see what people are saying, and how they're developing this idea as users of the service.