Toyota Matrix

i never purchased a new car before and want to know how much can a consumer bargin price wise with a new car. I am looking at a 2006 Matrix AWD that the dealer lists for $20,300. But I would like to spend around $15000 with tax, licence etc. Would the dealer be able to go down to $17,000 with tax, licence, etc out the door? Any pointer would be appriciated.