The oil shortage

A friend of mine sent me this link, it is a rather lengthy read but I found it quite intersting. So I am passing it along to discuss. This is the first link I found claiming the invasion of Iraq was about the oil. I don't totally believe in the theory but I was amazed reading the whole piece.


http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

This is a very interesting article and worth reading.
It does not, however, say anything new and is flawed.
It makes dire projections of doom and gloom based on past trends and does not (indeed it cannot) take into account any new technoligical or social breakthroughs. Like any prediction of the future, it is most likely going to be hugely inaccurate.

However, the messages of conservation, awareness and preparation are reasonable.

However, I did note it does NOT mention nuclear fusion. (Its different than the nuclear fission that powers Homer Simpson's workplace. )

As you know, nuclear fusion powers our sun; it uses great heat to join 4 hydrogen atoms into one helium atom on the sub atomic level, thus releasing great amounts of energy. About 5.5 ounces of hydrogen has the same energy potential as 600,000 gallons of gasoline.

Science knows theoretically how to build a fusion reactorbut the engineering challanges are formidable.
However, if it cannot be achieved....well civilization has existed on some level for many thousands of years without crude oil. People will survive, it just will not be quite so easy.

i think when scince can harness the power of nuclear fusion, that will be they day cars will start hovering....anyway i had one question, why exactly are oil barrell prices going up?

^^^I think it does address matters regarding all manner of advanced energy production quite well. In short, the amount of raw materials and oil it would take, at this point, to perfect and implement these measures- whether it's nuclear, solar or what have you- are unavailable to us. Remember that every energy structure, every piece of machinery, every mode of transportation would need to be used, adapted and/or replaced during the interim. We've waited too long, and most likely will continue to cool our heels. If the critical point has not already been reached (as the article claims) it is only a matter of time. Scary and sad.

There have been predictions of oil production reaching its peak for as long as oil has been pulled from the ground. What the article doesn't talk about is that oil can be generated from sources outside of drilling (coal). When the cost of extracting a barrel of oil matches the price of converting coal to oil, there will be several trillion gallons waiting to come out of the US alone. Read up on it http://www.nrcce.wvu.edu/news/remarkable.htm The article talks about coal as a replacement as an energy source, but not as an oil source.

Not a single one of these prediction pieces has proven true. Not one. Others have been put together a whole lot better then that one and still the evidence was anicdotal and the conclusions false. Yes, I believe that there is a finite amount of oil on the planet. http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2000/SohailAhmed.shtml We've used a lot, but are still a long way from using it up even at the current predicted rates of consumption.

Yes, I also believe its in everyones interest to find alternate fuel sources, but the market will react and creative minds will invent. Legislating change might sound good to a paper pusher, but progress is made when governments get out of the way instead of in the middle.













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Great, well-balanced article. If any counrty thought that going to war over oil is worth it, it's foolish. Even Bush said "if Iraq was for oil the economics show it's cheaper to buy crude on the international market a lot cheaper."

But this ain't about him or any one politician. There are still vast untapped areas out there. They will cost a more to produce than did most of the "easy" wells in fields of the past.

At least they just voted to finally get the Alaskan coastal field exploration going. If anyone can appreciate the fact that a tiny postage stamp sized area will contribute relative to the football stadium sized Alaskan state is concerned, it can be put in perspective. It ain't gonna bother nature.

Locally where I live they killed plans a couple years ago to build an electrical generating facility. It was going to cost more to produce the energy that it could be sold for. And that is the problem with all alternative energy. Hydrogen is bullshit for the same reason. If it costs $1.20 in engery fuel to produce a product for $1.00 there's a problem.

Besides, how long would it take to have hydrogen in distribution as widely as gasoline is? It took 100 odd years to get where that is now.

Forget electric for the the reason that even if cars had reasonably priced battery arrays that don't equal the cost of a piston engine rebuild but at 30,000 miles, what will the energy source be to power the electric producing plants that would create that extra electric energy.

One thing the article didn't touch on was coal. During WW 2 the Germans developed synth-fuel for internal combustion engines with coal as the source after local and the huge Romanian oilfields were destroyed. There are some pretty vast coal seams out there.

Very interesting read, check out the numerous links in the original article for backup info.

Yogs, I can't agree with your "hey we're all big fat and happy, all is well" position. While there certainly is a lot of oil left, and science and technology are making leaps into recycling and alternate fuels, you can't argue with the statistics that we're finding less than we are exploiting, and using more and more while reserves are beginning to level off or dwindle. I'm sure in our lifetimes that the price of gas will climb and climb. In 2050, after another 45 years, IF there are no energy breakthroughs, we'll be in a world of hurt, petrologically speaking.

As longs as oil based companies, car companies etc. are financing politicians expect research into alternative fuels to be slow. The longer we wait will just mean a more rugged transition to new fuels when oil becomes too expensive for consumers. The sooner the better atleast we'll have a buffer zone if we get on it now.

Great, well-balanced article. If any counrty thought that going to war over oil is worth it, it's foolish. Even Bush said "if Iraq was for oil the economics show it's cheaper to buy crude on the international market a lot cheaper."
.

I'm amazed that you swallow all the lies that Bush spouts.That asshole couldn't tell the truth if his life depended on it. Control of Iraqi oil is the key to destabilising OPEC.When it suits the new landlord of Iraq, he can just turn the taps open wide, and turn the present international market on its head. Economics don't mean shit if you can flood the market with stolen oil.Perhaps that is why IRAQIS are doing so much to sabotage their own oil infrastructure.They'd rather see the oil stay in the ground than let some godless scumbag invade their country and abuse their resources.

Two years on, the resistance continues.The fight is for the oil, and the oil alone.Every other wafer thin excuse proffered by the lying heathen in the White House has proven to be a crock of shit.

I suppose we should all believe your socialist bullshit coming out of a phoney utopia on the edge of Nowhere?

And that cunthole Helen Clark is nothing but a wanna-be commie. The dumb bitch wants your country to return to some yesteryear marxist pretence of what government used to be as she pretends to move your floating turd from 11th place to 10th place.
http://www.emotipad.com/newemoticons/Southpark.gif

OK so you both don't like each other's heads of state. So be it. But C'mon Twitch, insulting the entire country? Please. This is about an oil shortage so start another thread if you want to hurl insults. Here, I'll do it for you:

http://www.automotiveforums.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=2921880#post2921880

Fred, This mofo does it all the time. You tell me how intellectual his mad ramblings are. "That asshole couldn't tell..." "the lying heathen in the White House has proven to be a crock of shit." Real cerebral!!

It just never ends like some little Maoist from 1968 thumping his Little Red Book and decrying the evils of US society. While the above post is leveled at Bush he is usually attacking US society in general(last time I looked YOU were part of that society too) and it's shortcoming while his fantasy island is perfect. Well it's not and a quick trip throught the web will tell you so.

He's so fixated of Bush that it rules his life to a degree that is totally unhealthy. How the hell does anything Bush does impact fantasy island on an ongoing, personal basis?

I didn't vote for Bush but I hope he keeps doin stuff to warp that twerp's weiner for the reactionary entertainment value alone! Bush controls this schmoo and he can't get around it!:biggrin:

He's simply a hate monger from an 11th rate nowhere rock with an antiquated form of government in a pothead society with escalating crime and a very high ratio prison population telling us how screwed up we are?
http://www.emotipad.com/newemoticons/ROTFLMAO.gif

I don't claim that oil will last forever but I also am not a chicken little fretting about running out of something that we've not even used 30% of. New technical innovations don't come because someone passes a law - they come from necessity, someone looking to make a profit or name for themselves or from someone who has money to burn.

Its not the governments job or the oil companies or the car companies to come up with an alternate fuel source and its distribution network. If some thinks they can come up with an alternate method and write up a business plan on how its a great long term investment, then by all means do it. FUnding for that kind of shit happens all the time. The key is you can't force someone to spend their money on what you think is a good idea (the government tries with its repressive tax system, but thats another story).

I wish Iraq was just about the oil and it were flowing to our pumps. We're on an automotive site - who doesn't want cheaper gas? Who here wants their cars engine to be obsolete when new fuel sources are implimented? Its not just the cost of perfecting a technology, there is a lot of infrastructure and a lot of people who won't be able to afford a brand new car that runs on flatuance (or whatever the next big idea is).

And to keep the button push 3.7 more years of Bush! :cheers:













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Fred, This mofo does it all the time. You tell me how intellectual his mad ramblings are. "That asshole couldn't tell..." "the lying heathen in the White House has proven to be a crock of shit." Real cerebral!!

Anyone that stays here for 10 minutes knows 'Naki hates Bush and consistently says so(usually in very strong terms). You'd have to agree though that our president hasn't been forthcoming and straightforward on a lot of issues. I could go into it, but there are plenty of posts to read.


It just never ends like some little Maoist from 1968 thumping his Little Red Book and decrying the evils of US society. While the above post is leveled at Bush he is usually attacking US society in general(last time I looked YOU were part of that society too) and it's shortcoming while his fantasy island is perfect. Well it's not and a quick trip throught the web will tell you so.

I don't know about attacking US society in general; I've seen the ILLS of our society attacked, and rightly so. People in these forums seem to focus on one thing and beat it to death, and you can use statistics to back up any narrow focus. I don't think any country is perfect - there are problems everywhere. I've travled overseas, and to tell the truth, everywhere I've been the people think a lot like Taranaki does about the US and its people.


He's so fixated of Bush that it rules his life to a degree that is totally unhealthy. How the hell does anything Bush does impact fantasy island on an ongoing, personal basis?

Can't comment on unhealthy mental condition of anyone on here; text isn't usually a valid indicator, but Taranaki is quite firm and consistent in his anti-Bush stance. To answer the second part of this paragraph, there's a post which details how a prime fishing spot has been fenced off and made off limits due to US policy. Of course Mr. Bush didn't do that personally, but still he is the president and things that happen during his administration can be attributed to his actions. Calling all of NZ "Fantasy Island" due to one person is a bit overblown though.
(however, "Da Plane, Da Plane!! :) )


I didn't vote for Bush but I hope he keeps doin stuff to warp that twerp's weiner for the reactionary entertainment value alone! Bush controls this schmoo and he can't get around it!:biggrin: He's simply a hate monger from an 11th rate nowhere rock with an antiquated form of government in a pothead society with escalating crime and a very high ratio prison population telling us how screwed up we are?


I happen to like NZ, it's a beautiful country. High ratio prison population? Maybe they're smart enough to keep the bad guys in prison, rather than letting them out the revolving door like they do in Florida. Hate monger? Yes, safe to say that 'Naki hates Bush; but may not have the insight to US society that we do, living here and is relying on statistics; by the same token, we don't have insight to NZ society, not having been or lived there so the value judgements made in this and other posts about NZ people may very well be off the mark.

I didn't vote for George W either. Every election is the "lesser of two evils" for me. Hopefully one day there will be a candidate I actually believe in.

All the above said and after a re-read, it sounds like I'm defending NZ and such, and maybe I am. Let's say I'm defending common sense and rationality.

:2cents:

I don't claim that oil will last forever but I also am not a chicken little fretting about running out of something that we've not even used 30% of. New technical innovations don't come because someone passes a law - they come from necessity, someone looking to make a profit or name for themselves or from someone who has money to burn.

So true. It will take a major effort to come up with and implement a new innovation. But don't you agree that in this case it's better to be a bit alarmist and get things started early, rather than start later when there's no oil? (Hyperbole of no oil for illustration)


Its not the governments job or the oil companies or the car companies to come up with an alternate fuel source and its distribution network. If some thinks they can come up with an alternate method and write up a business plan on how its a great long term investment, then by all means do it. FUnding for that kind of shit happens all the time. The key is you can't force someone to spend their money on what you think is a good idea (the government tries with its repressive tax system, but thats another story).

Right! No one is actually "responsible", but it's the scientists that will find the solutions. From the way the reference link was written, it seemed that it was a presentation of a scientist to other scientists, about what could happen in the future when the oil supply becomes exhausted, or close to it. There will come a day when the oil is gone, and this article is one estimate of that timeline. The figure of 30% of oil used may or may not be correct; but as stated the usage is increasing, and production is and will fall off. The 2 converging lines on the graph will, at some point, cross. While it's not certain when, that they will is a certainty. And that is the time and date that we'd better have better energy sources in place.



I wish Iraq was just about the oil and it were flowing to our pumps. We're on an automotive site - who doesn't want cheaper gas? Who here wants their cars engine to be obsolete when new fuel sources are implimented? Its not just the cost of perfecting a technology, there is a lot of infrastructure and a lot of people who won't be able to afford a brand new car that runs on flatuance (or whatever the next big idea is).
And to keep the button push 3.7 more years of Bush! :cheers:

Me, too. I'd like to see gas less than $1, but don't think that will ever happen again. Maybe $1 a quart (.95L) :lol: Which is closer to what Europeans pay. I'll be sad when the rumble of a big block V8 is no longer heard. Hopefully fuel cells and electric vehicles will eventually outperform gas engines. You're right, getting the infrastructure to support all that will take a long time and a lot of effort and expenditure. As someone said in another post, it's taken 100 years to get where we are with gas stations and such (which are the same as 30 years ago, minus the convenience store aspect :) ) so it WILL take some time.

I figure I'll be in a rocking chair by the time it all comes about. Either that, or holed up in the mountains, defending the last 400 cans of pork and beans with my bow and arrow. :lol2:

twitch, just take it with a grain of salt. Reading everything that was always posted by Naki, used to really get my goat, until I just basically understood that he can vent all he wants (perks of being on a US forum), but it will never make one bit of change anywhere in this world.

if you don't like it, just ignore it, or don't read it. no sense in getting yourself worked up because someone hates Bush, or the USA, or at least the way certain things are run here.

All it is hot smoke. get past it.

I have known for a while that it was all about the oil. Someone I am verry close to has been over there and he has seen first hand. It has nothing to do with necular wepons or any of that shit. I cant really go in to detail on what he told me, but it is pretty bad. Laugh and say I am full of shit, but I know what I am talking about!!!

Well I know someone over there ..... I can't say who it is but...It's really about the sand. Turns out there isn't enough sand in the US to make all the glass needed to fill all our beer bottles. It's true. I can't go into too many details either.

Well I know someone over there ..... I can't say who it is but...It's really about the sand. Turns out there isn't enough sand in the US to make all the glass needed to fill all our beer bottles. It's true. I can't go into too many details either.


Damn. And all we really have to do is re-use the bottles like the Germans do! There must be more to it.

I bet the Chinese have a monopoly on the beer bottle washing machines, which are sold through a North Korean resaler. The Euros snap them right up, but we refuse to do business with the Chinese based on their human rights records. Thus if we take the sand of the middle east, eventually the Euros will break all their bottles as their cheap Chinese bottle-washers fall apart. Then all your bottles are belong to us! MUHAHAHAHA :evillol:

And of course, Iran has a lot of sand too, so they better watch their backs! We can't have any Iranians turning sand to glass, no way man.

Weapons of mass consumption abound. What will we ever do?

I have known for a while that it was all about the oil. Someone I am verry close to has been over there and he has seen first hand. It has nothing to do with necular wepons or any of that shit. I cant really go in to detail on what he told me, but it is pretty bad. Laugh and say I am full of shit, but I know what I am talking about!!!


C'mon, that's just a tease and you know it (and as the last couple posts have pointed out). :nono:

Substance! Substance is needed here!!!!

Ok, look I wont say his name I dont want to get him into trouble. I can tell you this. When he came home for a few weeks from over there, he was out at my house visiting. he wanted to see the news so I switched the channel for him. They were talking about we were gonna help them clean up and that the job was about done. I cant rember the exact words. But I am sure you all know what i am talking about. Well my friend was mumbling to him self under his breath, seemed like he was upset. I asked him if he wanted me to turn off the tv, he said no, that he was fine. Then he took a drink and threw his glass at the tv and yelled bull shit. it is all bull shit. He started for the door, I stopped him and asked him if he wanted to talk. He said that he couldent tell me what was on his mind. Well he sat back down on the sofa and looked at his feet. Finaly after silence he broke down and started talking. He said that he was tired of keeping it all to him self. and that he needed to get it out. He said that everything we see on the news is 90% bull shit. That it is 500 times worse than what is reported. He told me that us bieng over there had nothing to do with wepons of mass distruction or terrorism, that was just an excuse. and that the hole reason for us to be over there is OIL. He said it is horrable, the killin and shit. They dont care if it is women, men or children. If they get in the way there dead. I have left out a few things for good reason. I believe every word that he said. I have never seen that man break down and cry like that.

When we were in Nam we had some idea we knew what the "reasons" were for us being there too. We didn't. All the people we thought were assholes that talked about the "domino theory" of each country falling to communism. More political bullshit, right? After we left everything except Thailand went commie.

Your friend will have to deal with the horror he saw. No one can help him. Tell him to be prepared to remember it a little or more everyday. It's pretty tough, I know, to being doing a sales presentation at work and have the vision pop into your mind of a little kid flying through the air in pieces cause the enemy strapped her up with grenades and sent her near some GIs to lift her skirt and pull the pins.

A soldier is sent to fight not to make socio-economic conclusions. And I hate all politicians in every party in every country! Those limp-dicked mofos should go! But they don't, soldiers go and do whatever job they're trained to do. That's the way societies have always worked.

I know for certain a Centurian probably lamented "why the hell are we over here fighting Germanic tribes? Are the assholes in Rome getting rich off this?"