EU loses a round in fight for Kyoto Protocol
YogsVR4
09-07-2004, 09:42 PM
http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040906182207.kzc2dows
The European Union on Monday lost a round in its battle to turn the Kyoto Protocol on global warming from a draft pact into an international treaty.
September 6 was a symbolic deadline for signatories to ratify Kyoto ahead of a major meeting, due in Buenos Aires from December 6-17.
Supporters had been desperately hoping Russia would ratify in time so that the gathering in Argentina could be the first at which Kyoto is debated as a full-fledged treaty rather than a draft agreement whose future is in doubt.
Ever since US President George W. Bush ditched Kyoto in 2001, all eyes have been on Russia, whose ratification is required under the mathematics of Kyoto's rulebook to push the agreement over the numbers threshold.
But as of Monday, Russia not only had failed to ratify -- it still appeared reluctant and divided about even wanting to do, reviving fears that the complex accord to trim greenhouse-gas emissions would be consigned to limbo.
Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is Kyoto's parent treaty, played down Russia's absence from the list of ratifiers.
"There is no such thing as a formal deadline," Waller-Hunter told AFP in an interview on Friday.
"We had made some kind of calculations that, if they would deposit (their instrument of ratification at the UN in New York) on the 6th September, then the Kyoto Protocol would have entered into force on the 5th December.
"... it is unlikely that it is going to be the case, given the preparations (in Moscow) at the moment and given the fact that the Duma hasn't looked at it yet."
Waller-Hunter said she did not rule out "a decision" by Russia to ratify Kyoto and if this happened before the December meeting, "it would be, of course, a very good birthday present," referring to the 10th anniversary of the entry into force of the UNFCCC.
Kyoto's champion is the European Union, which in arduous negotiations to complete the treaty's rulebook in 2001 offered huge concessions to Japan, Canada and Russia, saving Kyoto from the scrapheap after Washington's pullout.
The ball now lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who must decide whether to submit the draft treaty to the Duma, the Russian parliament, for its approval.
Putin, though, has blown hot and cold. In September 2002, he declared Russia intended to ratify, although he did not set a date for this.
A year later, he backtracked somewhat, saying he would "examine the question in minute detail" to determine whether the protocol "was in line with Russia's national interests."
In his latest public utterance, on May 21, at a summit with the EU, Putin pledged to "accelerate our efforts" to ratify the deal.
Since then, nothing -- outwardly -- has happened.
But behind the scenes, according to informed sources in Moscow, a ferocious battle is being waged among Russian supporters and defenders of Kyoto, with each side battling for Putin's ear.
According to a document obtained by AFP, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has drawn up a draft letter to Putin that in effect writes off Kyoto as being against Russian interests.
The basis for this argument is the impact of a proposed market in carbon dioxide emissions, an innovative but notoriously complicated Kyoto mechanism aimed at helping industrialised signatories meet their emissions quotas.
Without the United States as a purchaser of emissions, the carbon market will fall flat, leaving Russia without the windfall it expected, according to this document. Worse, it says, Russia's own big economic growth in the past few years means it may have to spend money in order to meet the Kyoto quota targets, it argues.
It suggests that further analysis into Kyoto's economic consequences be carried out, with a deadline for the "second quarter" of 2005.
Russian sources say the draft is not the last word.
They say it bears the hallmarks of Putin's economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, who is well known for his hostility to Kyoto.
The pro-Kyoto camp, led by Economic Development Minister German Gref, is preparing a riposte and wants the letter reworked by December 15, the sources say.
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The European Union on Monday lost a round in its battle to turn the Kyoto Protocol on global warming from a draft pact into an international treaty.
September 6 was a symbolic deadline for signatories to ratify Kyoto ahead of a major meeting, due in Buenos Aires from December 6-17.
Supporters had been desperately hoping Russia would ratify in time so that the gathering in Argentina could be the first at which Kyoto is debated as a full-fledged treaty rather than a draft agreement whose future is in doubt.
Ever since US President George W. Bush ditched Kyoto in 2001, all eyes have been on Russia, whose ratification is required under the mathematics of Kyoto's rulebook to push the agreement over the numbers threshold.
But as of Monday, Russia not only had failed to ratify -- it still appeared reluctant and divided about even wanting to do, reviving fears that the complex accord to trim greenhouse-gas emissions would be consigned to limbo.
Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is Kyoto's parent treaty, played down Russia's absence from the list of ratifiers.
"There is no such thing as a formal deadline," Waller-Hunter told AFP in an interview on Friday.
"We had made some kind of calculations that, if they would deposit (their instrument of ratification at the UN in New York) on the 6th September, then the Kyoto Protocol would have entered into force on the 5th December.
"... it is unlikely that it is going to be the case, given the preparations (in Moscow) at the moment and given the fact that the Duma hasn't looked at it yet."
Waller-Hunter said she did not rule out "a decision" by Russia to ratify Kyoto and if this happened before the December meeting, "it would be, of course, a very good birthday present," referring to the 10th anniversary of the entry into force of the UNFCCC.
Kyoto's champion is the European Union, which in arduous negotiations to complete the treaty's rulebook in 2001 offered huge concessions to Japan, Canada and Russia, saving Kyoto from the scrapheap after Washington's pullout.
The ball now lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who must decide whether to submit the draft treaty to the Duma, the Russian parliament, for its approval.
Putin, though, has blown hot and cold. In September 2002, he declared Russia intended to ratify, although he did not set a date for this.
A year later, he backtracked somewhat, saying he would "examine the question in minute detail" to determine whether the protocol "was in line with Russia's national interests."
In his latest public utterance, on May 21, at a summit with the EU, Putin pledged to "accelerate our efforts" to ratify the deal.
Since then, nothing -- outwardly -- has happened.
But behind the scenes, according to informed sources in Moscow, a ferocious battle is being waged among Russian supporters and defenders of Kyoto, with each side battling for Putin's ear.
According to a document obtained by AFP, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has drawn up a draft letter to Putin that in effect writes off Kyoto as being against Russian interests.
The basis for this argument is the impact of a proposed market in carbon dioxide emissions, an innovative but notoriously complicated Kyoto mechanism aimed at helping industrialised signatories meet their emissions quotas.
Without the United States as a purchaser of emissions, the carbon market will fall flat, leaving Russia without the windfall it expected, according to this document. Worse, it says, Russia's own big economic growth in the past few years means it may have to spend money in order to meet the Kyoto quota targets, it argues.
It suggests that further analysis into Kyoto's economic consequences be carried out, with a deadline for the "second quarter" of 2005.
Russian sources say the draft is not the last word.
They say it bears the hallmarks of Putin's economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, who is well known for his hostility to Kyoto.
The pro-Kyoto camp, led by Economic Development Minister German Gref, is preparing a riposte and wants the letter reworked by December 15, the sources say.
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As I've said before - this is a bad treaty. It will fail. Once again I am proving quite the prognosticator.
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Tehvisseeus
09-07-2004, 11:08 PM
Well if Russia wants to recover some of its former glory, signing the Kyoto treaty is a bad idea. Limiting emissions in as drastic of a way as it proposes would hamper their technological growth, hence why Bush backed away from it.
YogsVR4
09-09-2004, 01:34 PM
They are finally wising up to the joke that Kyoto is. Its based on junk science that will harm more people then it will ever help. Its typical feel good social engineering legislation. The funniest part is they made the treaty and then have spent the last decade+ trying to get the scientific proof. :lol2:
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