Does your mechanic recommend the belt doesn't need to be replaced? You didn't say how many miles you have on your truck, if it is over 90k you may want to think about your luck as a gambler. Read this Gates information for replacement intervals. Note that the Tacoma 3.4 engine is an interference engine meaning if the belt breaks you will probably have some internal engine damage.
http://www.familycar.com/CarCare/GatesFrame.htm
Regarding water pumps, you may want to read this article. If Tacoma water pumps never fail why would one dealer have 13 in stock?
http://www.automotiveforums.com/vbul...d.php?t=507014
FWIW, my Tacoma has a 2.4 engine with timing chain. I haven't seen a broken Tacoma belt but I did have to replace a broken belt on an Izuzu Stylus, lucky it was a non-intereferance engine.
Clifton