so, a follow up.
I am now able to reproduce this fairly reliably.
If I make sure that the steering wheel locks after turning the key off, It will start, every time. If I do not, there is a good chance that the next day, it will experience the problem. And when it does, I can turn the key back off, lock the steering wheel, remove the key, then insert the key and try again, and it will start.
So, obviously it is something going on in the connectors in the steering column.
Very weird.